Over the past few decades, several insiders have boldly accepted the existence of UFOs and hinted at the phenomenon being around us all the time, and that our reductive senses are limiting our ability to perceive it. The discussion on Alien-UFO theory has already become a hot topic in the mainstream media.
In March 2022, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory posted a paper on arXiv.org that detailed a new design for a message intended for extraterrestrial recipients. Is revealing Earth’s location to aliens a good idea? Physicist Stephen Hawking said that they could even destroy us. He spoke publicly about his fears that an advanced alien civilization would have no problem wiping out the human race the way a human might wipe out a colony of ants.
Considering Hawking’s statement, is there any hostile alien civilization out there? Recently, a research paper published on arXiv.org has explained the consequences of contacting extraterrestrial civilizations. The paper attempts to provide an estimation of the prevalence of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations through extrapolation of the probability that we, as the human civilization, would attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet once we became a Type-1 civilization in the Kardashev Scale capable of nearby interstellar travel.
The author of the paper Alberto Caballero admits that although there are some limitations, there are roughly four “malicious extraterrestrial civilizations” in the Milky Way.
Note: Alberto Caballero is a PhD student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain and the author of a separate study published in Cambridge University’s peer-reviewed International Journal of Astrobiology earlier this month that attempted to analyze where the famous WOW! Signal originated.
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Mr. Caballero wrote: “The fact that the estimated probability of extraterrestrial invasions two orders of magnitude lower than that of a planet-killer asteroid collision should open the door to the next step, which is having an international debate to determine the conditions under which the first serious interstellar radio or laser message will be sent to a nearby potentially habitable exoplanet.
It is necessary to mention that the probabilities are cumulative, which means that sending radio messages to several potentially habitable planets raises the total to the sum of all of them, which is in any case an extremely low probability. We could send up to 18,000 interstellar messages to different exoplanets and the probabil ity of invasion by a malicious civilization would be the same as that of an earth collision with a global-catastrophe asteroid.”
Mr. Caballero researched the number of times the invasions happened on the Earth by different nations in the last 50 years. He explained that he had to make some assumptions for the calculations. He then took that data and applied it to the number of known and estimated exoplanets, and potentially habitable exoplanets, based on Italian SETI scientist Claudio Maccone’s estimate that there could be as many as 15,785 civilizations in the Milky Way. (The basic idea — extending Earthbound ideas of conflict into outer space — might be familiar to fans of sci-fi fare such as The Expanse.)
Mr. Caballero concluded: “We can now compare the probability of invasion of a civilization more advanced than humanity with the probability of a planet-killer asteroid collision. The impact probability of a Chicxulub-like asteroid(which led to the extinction of 75% of life) is only one every one hundred million years, or 1E-06 % (CNEOS, 2022). The probability of extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization whose planet we message is, therefore, is around two orders of magnitude lower than the probability of a planet-killer e asteroid collision. Some attempts are currently being made through NASA’s DART mission to deflect potentially hazardous asteroids such as Didymos B, a 160-meter asteroid, much smaller thantheChicxulub asteroid of 10 kilometers in diameter. The possibility of an asteroid colliding with Earth will always exist, including those of interstellar origin that we are not aware of.”
In his research, he mentioned that it is likely that there is only one malicious extraterrestrial civilization in the Milky Way that has also mastered interstellar travel, which would make them the so-called “Type 1” civilization.
Jamie Carter, a Forbes writer contacted Mr. Caballero, asking him why technologically advanced Type 1/Type 2 civilizations that consume more energy would be less likely to invade.
“Data from last century shows that the frequency of invasions between countries have gradually decreased as time goes by,” replied Caballero in an email this week. “Based on that data a civilization like humanity would be more likely to invade than a Type-1 civilization, but they would not have the means to travel to an extraterrestrial planet.”
Mr. Caballero told Carter that the fear of alien invasions is created due to the hostile behavior of aliens shown in Hollywood movies. “Only in a very few movies – such as 2016’s Arrival – are extraterrestrial invaders peaceful,” he said. In 2015, Podesta received emails from Edgar Mitchell that expressed his concern about the weaponization of space and its impact on the ETI (extraterrestrial intelligence). Despite the fact that aliens might be violent as shown in the various sci-fi, the notable astronaut called them nonviolent in his email.
